Interview with belarussian oppositionleader in exile,

Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya

february 2024

1. How did the Russian invasion change the political and social life in Belarus? Did it change public opinion? How do people think of this war?

The overwhelming majority of Belarusians do not support Russia’s aggression against Ukraine. And they do not support the participation of Belarus on the side of Russia. From the beginning, our revolution in 2020 was not geopolitical. We simply wanted freedom and democracy for our people. But it became geopolitical, when the dictator sold our country to Russia to stay in power, and even more so, when he allowed them to use our territory to attack Ukraine. Now, it’s not just about our freedom, but about the freedom of Ukraine and all of Europe. The full-scale invasion of Ukraine increased the divide between the Belarus regime and the people even more, and the regime has responded with increased repression. Still, it didn’t stop people from protesting against the war, and some Belarusians went to Ukraine to fight against Russia.

2. How important Belarus is for weapon production, training of military staff, basis for air attacs, etc. for the war/Russia?

We know that the Belarus regime is delivering material assistance to Russia. At the same time, Russia is using Belarus to bypass sanctions, and Belarus is using Russia. That’s why we say that sanctions need to be synchronized and loopholes must be closed. Sanctions are not a silver bullet, but it is a mechanism that can help to change the behavior of dictators. With Lukashenka in power, Belarus will continue to remain a threat to Ukraine and other neighbors. Lukashenka had a critical role in enabling Russia’s aggression. A free Belarus will be the best sanction against Russia and the best support for Ukraine. 

3. The military situation is rather difficult for Ukraine, does this distub you?

I still believe in Ukraine’s victory, and we must provide Ukraine with everything it needs to win. I sometimes hear talk about “fatigue” in the West. But as long as Ukraine is fighting for their freedom, and our freedom, then there can’t be any place for fatigue. The Ukrainian soldiers in the trenches can’t just walk away, and neither can political prisoners in Belarusian torture prisons. We have to keep resisting, for as long as it takes for victory.

4. Does the war and Putin`s pressure on Belarus stabilize or destabilize Lukashenkov`s System on a long term run? How dependent is Belarus of the political development in Russia? Do we have to wait for changes or ist it possible to accelerate the scenario?

Of course, waiting is not an option. However, it's important to recognize that as long as Russia is capable, it will continue to support Lukashenka with resources to sustain the pro-Russian regime in Belarus. Effectively, Belarusians are facing two dictators: Lukashenka and Putin. To bring about change in Belarus, it's crucial to undermine Russia's ability to support Lukashenka's regime. This could happen either because Russia no longer has the resources to do so, or politically, through the terms of a peace treaty following Ukraine's victory. Belarus should not be left to Russia. Any peace treaty must include provisions to end Russian presence and influence in Belarus. Once Kremlin support is severed, Belarusians will be capable of dealing with their dictator on their own. Remember, without democratic changes in Belarus, building a stable security system in Europe is impossible.

5. In your last Interview with our forum you where -inspite of all repressions- still optimistic about the chances of Belarus opposition. How is the situation now? Did the situation of Human Rights and the repression against opposition get worse? Are there still possibilities for opposition to organise, take action and articulate their positions?

Unfortunately, the repression is still increasing all the time. Every day, on average between 15 and 20 people are detained. Just in the last week, the regime carried out searches and detentions against more than 160 family members of political prisoners and former prisoners. No one can feel safe in Belarus today. The regime’s thugs can come knocking at your door any time. But still, we see amazing acts of kindness and bravery. The resistance continues though it changed its form. It happens that complete strangers help each other, or the families of political prisoners. I admire the self-organization and endurance of Belarusians. I am sure that the regime’s terror is also a reaction to the actions of people. No one resigned themselves and turned the page.

6. Are there ideas in case there is a chance für political change, if perhaps Lukashenko is not able any more to rule the country or dies? How about plans of independence from Russia, changes of government structures, as secret police, archives, punishment for repression?

We realize that we have to be ready when a window of opportunity opens. We have developed detailed plans for the period of transition, including the release and rehabilitation of political prisoners, bringing the regime and all their accomplices to justice, economic reforms and bringing Belarus back to Europe. There is much to be done, but we have to use the time now to prepare for reforms. It’s also important to show Belarusians an alternative to the Russian world - to show that they are welcome in Europe. Last week, I spoke at the Council of Europe and underlined that a membership for democratic Belarus will be the first step on the way to EU membership. 

7. The international attention is mainly concentrating on Ukraine, is it more difficult for you to find attention for Belarus and Belarus opposition?

Of course, Belarus is overshadowed by Ukraine. But we should realize that all of that are parts of one puzzle. Tyrannies, like Putin’s and Lukashenka’s, are taking revenge. They are challenging the world order. They fight against democracy, and the world must be firm, and fight back. You can not solve one problem and leave the other for another day. 

8. The European border to Russia and Belarus is getting closer. The status of many refugees from Belarus is weaker than this of Ukrainians in EU? Does this make problems?

In my meetings with European leaders, I always stress the need to support Belarusians escaping the regime’s terror. Most importantly, Europe must continue to distinguish between Belarusians and Russians. And we see many good examples that this is happening. There are many challenges for Belarusians in exile and we are working to solve. The regime is taking revenge by refusing to renew passports at embassies, and many are at risk of being left without travel passports. This is a problem we are addressing together with our European partners, including the development of a New Belarus passport.

9. Is there anything Europe, civil society, could do more, i.g. for exchange of free information, to help Belarus Opposition?

It is important to support our independent media in exile, they are doing an incredible job - you must remember that Belarus became one of the world’s worst jailers of journalists. This is an information war, as the regime is trying to suppress the truth and drown our people in propaganda. In general, our civil society took over many roles that the regime vacated, because they are no longer providing basic services to our people - it stopped functioning as a government - and therefore we must support civil society organizations. I am also asking European tech companies to help, for example with tools to protect journalists and support for the Belarusian language.